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Top 10 Housing Market Predictions for the 2nd Quarter of 2023

At the end of 2022, Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provided his top 10 predictions for this year. Below is a review of those predictions with some updates for the remainder of 2023.

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Home Prices

I predicted that home prices would fall in 2023 but that the decline would not be systemic. As of April, year-over-year prices were down a little less than 2%, but they are up over 6% year-to-date. I’m standing by my forecast that the U.S. median home price in 2023 will be modestly lower than 2022, but prices will not erode in the way that some had anticipated.

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Mortgage Rates

As I expected, mortgage rates remained above 6% during the first half of the year, but my prediction that they would drop below 6% in the fall is now unlikely. There are two reasons why I got this wrong: the banking crisis and concerns that the debt ceiling would not be raised. As a result, mortgage rates have broken above 7% eight times so far this year and remain higher than I was anticipating by this point in 2023. Rates should settle as we move through the second half of the year and, while I still expect them to trend lower from present levels, they will hold above 6% unless there is a recession – which has about a 50% chance of happening.

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Housing Supply

Although we did see an increase in the number of homes for sale in late spring, housing supply is still running at about 40% of its long-term average and will not likely improve this year. This is, in part, because there are currently an estimated 25+ million homeowners with mortgage rates around 3% who do not want to lose that low rate by selling, so they’re staying put – for now.

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Seller’s Market

Due to the limited number of homes for sale, the market still technically favors sellers. That said, what defines a buyer’s or seller’s market varies by location but, with persistently low inventory levels, I stand by my call that the market will continue to favor sellers in most markets through the end of 2023.

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List Prices

I expected list prices to pull back further than they have, but sellers continue to be pretty bullish when it comes to pricing their homes due to the pervasive inventory constraints. That said, all markets are local, and there are some cities where list prices for single-family homes are down between 30-50% from their 2022 peaks. However, overall, list prices around the country have not softened as much as I thought they would, and they will likely continue rising through the balance of the year.

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Return to Work

The pace of workers heading back to the office has been slower than predicted. In fact, the share of people working in an office full time dropped to 42% in the second quarter of 2023 from 49% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the share of offices with hybrid work environments rose to 30% in the second quarter, which is up from 20% in the previous quarter. I still expect more workers to return to their offices in the coming months, albeit at a slower pace than I had forecasted.

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New Construction Activity

As I predicted, builders have pulled back so far this year, with new home permits and starts falling by double digits when compared to last year. This sector continues to be impacted by high financing rates and construction costs and I do not anticipate much improvement in the second half of 2023

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Market Conditions Vary

As expected, markets around the country where home prices rose the fastest during the pandemic years are the ones experiencing the biggest price declines; however, in areas that did not appreciate as quickly, home prices are still holding above their 2022 highs.

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Affordability

Housing affordability continues to be an issue. While some markets have experienced price declines, they are not enough to make housing affordable. Add to this the highest mortgage rates we’ve seen in over a decade, and housing remains unaffordable to many. Unfortunately, these conditions will not improve for buyers this year.

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Housing Shortage

In my 2023 forecast, I suggested that the government needed to do their part to help address our country’s significant housing shortage, and we are seeing some progress in this area with a number of states either pursuing legislation to tackle this problem or creating task forces to analyze it. It’s a good start, but more still needs to be done.

Reach out to talk about your home ownership goals anytime!

How Will Washington’s New Legislation Impact Single-Family Zoning on the Seattle Eastside?

The state of Washington recently passed groundbreaking legislation that overrides cities’ authority to restrict land to single-family homes only. This move is aimed at promoting housing diversity and increasing housing development throughout the state. However, the new rules come with certain exceptions, particularly in some of the wealthiest neighborhoods, such as Broadmoor in Seattle and Innis Arden in Shoreline. While these exclusive areas can maintain their single-family home status, surrounding neighborhoods will experience significant changes.

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How to Get Your House Ready to Sell & Why it’s Important. 

Selling your home often brings up a range of emotions and can be stressful. Even before putting your home on the market, there’s a great deal of prep to ensure your property is ready for showings. If you need help getting your house ready to sell, I’m here to help by walking you through tips to get your house ready to sell! I’ll also cover why it’s important to have a home-selling game plan and talking to a real estate agent should always be at the top of your home-selling checklist. 

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6 Ways Changing Mortgage Rates Can Affect You

Mortgage rates are an important part of the home buying process. These rates are determined by a variety of factors, such as the economy, the housing market, and the amount of money you borrow. As these factors change, so too do mortgage rates. As mortgage rates fluctuate, it can have a major impact on the amount of money you have to pay each month for your home.

If you’re in the process of buying a home or refinancing, it’s important to understand how changing mortgage rates can affect you.

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Homebuying 101: A Comprehensive Guide to Successful Homebuying

Buying a home can be a thrilling and exciting experience, but it can also be overwhelming and stressful, especially for first-time buyers. The process is less nerve-wracking when you understand the process. Whether you are a first-time homebuyer or an experienced one, this guide will provide you with the information you need to make informed decisions, avoid common pitfalls, and ultimately find your dream home.

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When Is the Best Time to Sell My House?

Deciding when the right time is to sell your home can be stressful. You may need to consider several personal and financial factors, before listing your home for sale. Home supply is one of the key factors to consider when planning to sell your house.

It’s no secret the market has been shifting constantly since 2020 and will continue to do so. The Feds raising rates in late 2022 resulted in buyers pausing their home search and the market largely stalling. As a result, we were left with a cooled market with little activity and even more notably, no inventory. Queue the current issue—the lack of homes available with buyers back out in the market!

Many sellers have been reluctant to list due to the changing real estate climate. This has led to historically low property supply, especially in the more affordable, mid-price range of homes.

One of the BEST Times to List Your Home is When Inventory is Low. Why?

Historically, there is an influx of people that list their homes come Springtime. The holidays are over, it’s a new year, and often the shift in weather motivates people to list their homes. This is also one of the peak times that buyers get out there to start their home search. There’s just one problem—the inventory isn’t there for buyers. So, what does that mean for sellers?

Now is the prime time to list! The shift in the market, coupled with everything the economy brought, left a far fewer number of people buying and selling. But with the recent dip in mortgage rates, buyers are leaving the sidelines and ramping back up their home searches. The housing demand hasn’t caught up to buyer demand, leaving a unique position for sellers to maximize on selling.

Benefits of Listing When Inventory is Low

Low housing supply is a huge deal if you want to time your home sale perfectly. Check out the top 4 reasons why the current low home inventory is the perfect excuse to sell your house.

1). Higher Property Prices

Bidding wars tend to become more common and intense when the demand for homes is higher than the supply. This automatically drives up home prices. The increased demand and low supply also mean that you will likely sell your home faster than if the supply was high. You can use this to your bargaining advantage to get a sweet deal on your sale.

2). Multiple Offers and Bidding Wars

As we saw in 2021 and 2022, when demand is high and supply is low, people will do anything to secure a home. We are already seeing bidding wars consistently taking place in 2023. With so few options, we are seeing contingencies being waved, prices being escalated, and multiple offer scenarios taking place for buyers to secure homes.

3). Home Values Holding Strong

One benefit of selling now is increasing the likelihood of getting top dollar for your home. When you sell your home when inventory is higher, you hold less power as a seller and often will have to negotiate or lower the price to move your home. In a market with lower inventory, it is far less likely that sellers will have to come down on price, with multiple buyers looking at and trying to purchase the home.

Capitalize on This Market and Sell Your Home

Low housing inventory can be your biggest advantage if you want to sell your house. As we move further into Spring and Summer months, inventory will continue to increase leaving your home on the market with more and more competition. Capitalize on this unique opportunity to move your home quickly and for top dollar! It’s important to remember that the market is always shifting and with the right mindset and a little bit of preparation, you can navigate these changes and achieve your real estate goals. If you have questions, reach out, I’m here to help!

Now is the Ideal Time to Put Your Home on the Market!

The hunt for the perfect home is heating up, with a shortage of available homes on the market. Buyers are scrambling to find their dream home, even stretching their budgets, and looking in areas they wouldn’t normally consider. But, while this may seem like a tough market for buyers, it’s actually a prime opportunity for sellers to capitalize on the high demand and negotiate from a position of strength.

The Real Estate Marketing is Shifting

The housing market is undergoing a shakeup, and buyers are feeling the heat. With inventory levels at record lows, it’s a tougher landscape for those searching for their dream home. But, for sellers, it’s a prime opportunity to capitalize on the high demand and negotiate favorable terms. 

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Real Estate Investing in 2023

Whether you are a seller, investor, or developer, keeping up with King County’s real estate trends is an ever-changing game right now! Let’s dig into the top things to expect in 2023 and beyond!

Kings County’s 2023 Real Estate Statistics

With the effects of COVID-19 and the increase in inflation, King County’s real estate landscape has been challenging for both investors and buyers. We have had record low inventory, bidding wars with homes selling for hundreds of thousands over ask, and now a lull with inventory up and buyers sitting and waiting for what’s next.

Despite the story the media portrays, King County’s real estate has great opportunities for buyers and investors. With housing levels increasing and buyers decreasing, it allows for more negotiating room and power for buyers.

Investors Will Enjoy an Increase in Property Values

In 2022, there was a 20.6% increase in home prices in King County. For instance, in August 2022, the median home price was $933,537, a rise of $100,000 within one year. A continued increase in prices is expected into 2023.

The rise in prices is linked to the rising demand from buyers who had halted buying property during the health crisis. Therefore, with the soaring prices, investors and sellers, especially those holding property, will get better profits from sales.

Reduced Buyer Competition

Since the onset of the COVID crisis, mortgage rates have been increasing relentlessly due to the increase of benchmark rates. Mortgage rates in the US, King County included, are expected to keep rising into 2023.

Though disadvantageous in some ways, the increased mortgages reduce buyer competition. As a result, buyers will likely find their ideal property without facing stiff competition from other buyers eyeing it.

Quick Property Sales for Investors

Like the economy, there has been a significant slowdown in the US construction industry due to increased construction material prices, rising mortgages, and a decrease in investors pumping money into development projects.

The slowdown is similar across several states, including Washington. Therefore, going into 2023, real estate investors in King County should expect an easy time selling their properties — no more waiting for months or years to get the right buyer.

Increased Value for Single-Family Homes

According to The Seattle Times, 83 percent of residents in King County prefer single-family houses to multifamily units. The preference has increased the demand for single-family units, which is why such units have become pretty expensive.

While the demand is detrimental to buyers, it is an opportunity for sellers and developers. For instance, building single-family units in King County would be a more lucrative venture with the potential of fetching maximum prices.

Furthermore, for real estate sellers with an inventory of single-family units. 2023 would be an excellent time to sell single-family units at good prices. Many buyers, especially investors, would be fine adding high-demand units to their real estate portfolio.

Increased Occupancy Rates for Rental Properties

Given the rising property values, tough economic times, and increased mortgages, many residents in King County prefer renting to buying. Going into 2023, the high demand for rental property is expected to remain as high as it is currently.

As a result, real estate investors with rental properties will enjoy increased occupancy rates, meaning that they will receive increased income from rental units, especially single-family units, which have a higher demand.

Learn More About Growing Your Passive Income by Investing in Real Estate

If buying or investing has been on your radar, let’s connect to talk about your goals and how to make them happen! Don’t let rates or worries stop you from investing in your future.

The Best Holiday Celebrations in Seattle and the Eastside 

Seattle and the Eastside are Washington’s best winter paradise during the holidays. From the brightest light displays to the most joyous Christmas parades, Seattle makes it simple to embrace the holiday spirit. It’s the perfect time to stroll through the lovely streets adorned with shimmering lights and holiday decorations. 

There is an abundance of ways to celebrate, create cheer, and soak up all the magic of the season throughout King County! The twinkling light displays of the Garden d’Lights, ice skating in Bellevue’s Downtown Park, shopping, and the notorious Snowflake Lane Parade are but a few of the Seattle area’s beautiful holiday festivities. Here are just a few of my favorite must-see holiday events or festivities you should check out in the Seattle the beautiful Eastside

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